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  1. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  2. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    Bitcoin - Everything You Need to Know And Why I think It is Similar to Tulip Mania

     
  3. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    Businesswise I am not seeing any changes in Supriya but I am still trying to study what will be an impact of CEO change. I will prefer wait and watch as of now.
     
  4. emailsaravanans

    emailsaravanans Member

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    @shabbir what is you take on supriya as of now? Is it a time for more accumulation to supriya or should we shift to divis?
     
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  5. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    Perfect timing of resignation.
    The preference should be the safety with future growth.
     
  6. laveshdixit

    laveshdixit Responder

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    As we were discussing this, Supriya's CEO resigned, and the stock fell 6%. We cannot anticipate such news and such sharp falls.
    I will further evaluate between these companies, but may be my preference would be for the one which has already done it before.
     
  7. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    If you think Divis will have growth challenges then Supriya is better choice but not otherwise.

    I think DIVIs will continue to grow at 20%+ profit growth. Profit growth is more important than sales growth.

    Supriya, still, has some time left to prove it can keep growing earnings. Untested I would say as yet but looks promising.
     
  8. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  9. laveshdixit

    laveshdixit Responder

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    I would like to explore the option of buying one of the above stocks.

    Supriya - small cap
    MCAP 2600
    EPS 19
    PE 17
    PB 4
    FV 2
    ROE 34
    ROCE 43
    Shareholding 68%

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Net Sales 92 113 138 171 184 213 278 312 391 530
    PAT 5 6 8 6 6 9 39 73 124 152

    Consistent growth in Sales and Profits.
    Sales growth 5 years - 24%

    38 API products, and a lot in pipeline. Valuation decreased a lot in last 2 quarters, after significant margin pressure.

    Divis Lab - Large Cap
    MCAP 97000
    EPS 117
    PE 31
    PB 7.8
    FV 2
    ROE 28
    ROCE 35
    Shareholding 52%

    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
    Net Sales 2,532 3,115 3,776 4,064 3,891 4,946 5,394 6,969 8,960
    PAT 773 852 1,126 1,060 877 1,353 1,377 1,984 2,960

    Sales growth 5 years - 17%
    Large API developer in 10 Generics.
    Low interest

    My preference is Supriya, since it is a small cap and can grow very fast, and it execution is good.
    But Divi's has consistently showed its top performance, but will it be able to grow further, and keep going.

    How do I decide which one to choose between the two?

    @shabbir
     
  10. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  11. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  12. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    Top 10 Countries with the Highest Number of Billionaires:
    1. United States
    2. China
    3. India
    4. Germany
    5. Russia
    6. Hong Kong
    7. Brazil
    8. Canada
    9. United Kingdom
    10. Italy
    Then we have top 10 countries with highest per capita income
    1. Qatar
    2. Macao
    3. Luxembourg
    4. Singapore
    5. Brunei
    6. Ireland
    7. United Arab Emirates
    8. Kuwait
    9. Switzerland
    10. San Marino
    These countries are doing something that they are able to divide wealth among citizens more equally.

    Something that other countries should adapt.
     
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  13. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  14. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  15. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  16. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  17. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  18. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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  19. shabbir

    shabbir Administrator Staff Member

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    Supriya is trading at much lower price to earnings as compared to Divis.

    Now see the earnings call of Supriya of Aug 2022 (https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/cec37817-13e4-4ed4-bc95-342536ee3222.pdf) on Page 15 of 19. You can see they talk about revenue double in 5 years from 500 crores now to 1000 crores. Actually 3 years is what investors want but some regulations and approvals and so they will do it in FY2627

    For Divis it has been in range of 3 to 4 years to double the revenue. So I think Divis EPS will double faster than Supriya. However, for 5 year doubler, the current PE ratio may be low and market may give it higher PE ratio going forward and so it may appreciate in price more than Divis.

    Hope I am clear now.

    Look at past few years sales growth and profit growth for both in screener.in. It will help you understand that Stylam is doing better. Further, there are less players in laminate sector than in footwear. So the growth is expected to continue for Stylam but for Relaxo, I have doubt it can grow at 20%. 10 to 15% is more likely scenario.

    Business analysis.
    Glad you like them.
    That is the whole point. I want to be helping people learn what I have learned and if I can even help a few people, that is more satisfying than anything else.

    I always like to say that I want to be earning from the market than trying to earn from my blog readers.
     
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  20. emailsaravanans

    emailsaravanans Member

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    >> Can Supriya be a better bet in terms of growth? - I don't think so. I am in fact planning a switch from SUPRIYA to DIVIs but not doing it because the valuation of SUPRIYA is even more compelling than DIVIS. Business wise I still believe, the EPS of Supriya from 18 to 36 will take more time than DIVI to reach from 111 to 222. Price wise, SUPRIYA can do better but I may switch if I find compelling valuation on either of them.

    1. Could you illustrate how is the supriya valuation is more compelling than divis? It would really help us analyse stocks in general?

    2. Similarly Could you also explain how are you concluding the EPS growth for Divi might be faster when compared to Supriya? Similarly explain, why Stylam can grow faster than Relaxo? This will be really useful for us.

    Are these predictions based on the fundamentals and technicals or more of a business understanding? I think we are lacking this kind of analysis here...

    Thanks for all your sharing... The way you are demonstrating your portfolio entries and exits are really awesome and it gives too much learning for us. It is very easy to talk about stocks and concepts in general and generate lot of content (many youtube videos are like that) and not follow them because we really dont know if they are applying those concepts to their portfolios. But you are very unique, you have exposed the portfolio and sticking all the principles and concepts of yours to the portfolio day in and out. It is best mix of both theory and practical. Also, your behaviour and patience during both the recent falls (covid, ukraine war), helped us emotionally to hold our positions in the market too... Also, Inspite of knowing the technicals and price action, you still refrain from the trading and that helped us to stop going behind trading and stick to investment only... Atleast I am benefitting a lot from you... Lot of the perception about the market changed after following you... Thanks.. Keep sharing and rocking...!